How the Westbrook Trade could be the worst in Rockets history

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Everyone knows the story. After a 2018 season in which the Rockets were one Chris Paul injury away from a Finals berth, Houston dealt Chris Paul to the Thunder for superstar guard Russell Westbrook. At the time, the Westbrook trade was seen as a move to increase athleticism in Houston’s backcourt in establishing arguably the best guard tandem in the league. With James Harden’s cosign, the experiment began.

Presently, however, the Rockets are without either of their superstar guards, and are at risk of losing their top-odds pick. The potential for loss exceeds 2021, as well. With the Westbrook-Harden era officially over, here’s a look at how the Westbrook trade could have crippled the Rockets for years to come.

The Deal

In hindsight, the deal is woefully stacked in Oklahoma City’s favor. Not only did the Thunder get arguably a better player, they got a plethora of picks with him. Chris Paul’s contract was cheaper, too.

At the time, however, no one knew how the Westbrook experiment in Houston would play out. The first indication of failure might have been Westbrook ineffectiveness to begin the season. In November of 2019, Westbrook averaged 21.9 PTS/5.8 AST/6.3 REB on 41% shooting in his first full month in Houston. Not terrible, but certainly not worth the amount of capital Houston traded to acquire Westbrook.

Westbrook saw his stats tick up slightly in December, but the guard still shot a woeful percentage from the field. And while Houston still succeeded, it was mostly in spite of Westbrook’s performances. Rockets fans began to wonder when their superstar would begin to play like a superstar.

The Turnaround

However, a turnaround came eventually. Westbrook turned his season around in the month of January, reminiscent of his MVP form. Westbrook averaged 32.5 points on on 52% shooting in January, among the best in basketball. He also averaged roughly eight assists and rebounds each per game during that stretch.

Westbrook continued his torrid stretch in the month of February, maintaining his playmaking stats while also upping his scoring and field goal percentages. It finally seemed as though the Rockets were getting the version of Westbrook they originally envisioned.

He very well may have continued his hot streak before the league shut down due to the Coronavirus. The rest of the story is well-known among NBA fans. Westbrook became maligned by injury, and was never really able to return to his early 2020 form. The Rockets squeaked by Chris Paul and the Thunder in the first round, but were soundly eliminated by LeBron and the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers in the second round.

The Departure

Thus began an offseason that serves as a nightmare for Rockets fans. Reports of turmoil within the organization took hold of the media, and for the next few months, speculation of Harden and Westbrook potentially leaving were in constant circulation. The season had already seen the departure of multiple fan favorites, like Clint Capela and Gerald Green. Eventually, GM Daryl Morey and head coach Mike D’Antoni also saw fit to exit their posts. It seemed inevitable that Harden and Westbrook would leave too.

Westbrook was the first to depart. After one season in Houston, Houston traded Westbrook to the Washington Wizards, in exchange for John Wall and a first-round pick. In the second Westbrook trade in as many years, the Rockets had already decided to move on from Westbrook.

Harden’s departure was even uglier. After a long, drawn-out episode in which Harden eventually outright admitted to desiring a trade, Harden was shipped to Brooklyn for a wealth of picks and pick swaps, and the Rockets were essentially relegated to the basement of NBA teams.

The Present

Currently, the Rockets have made do with key finds and savvy moves from current GM Rafael Stone. Christian Wood was attracted to Houston from Detroit, and has quickly blossomed into one of the league’s premier big men. Kevin Porter Jr., after a rocky departure from Cleveland in the middle of the season, has benefitted from a change of scenery and now serves as the guard of the future. Other young players given real chances have shown talent at the NBA level, like Jae’Sean Tate and Armoni Brooks.

The Rockets are set up for a rebuild, and the future should be looking bright. However, the Westbrook trade looms large, even now.

The Draft

Think back to the details of the Westbrook trade. The outright first round picks given to OKC are already big chips, especially now that Houston is rebuilding. However, the second sentence is equally as troubling. Oklahoma City has the right to a pick swap with Houston in 2021.

A quick explanation — a pick swap basically gives a team the right to, well, swap picks. For example, say the Denver Nuggets own the 24th pick in the draft, and Chicago owns the 13th. The two sides execute a deal that involves a pick swap for that year’s draft. So long as the pick isn’t protected, Denver can use the swap to switch picks with Chicago — now they pick 13th, and Chicago 24th.

Houston had the worst record in the league last season. By all means, OKC would be salivating at the chance to swap picks with them and acquire that pick. However, Houston’s pick is lottery protected — meaning that if the pick is in the top four picks in the draft, Houston gets to keep the pick. The NBA isn’t like the NFL or MLB, in that you aren’t guaranteed the best pick, even if you have the worst record.

Houston has a 12.5% chance at landing the league’s first overall pick; far from a guarantee. Combining their odds to land any of the first four picks and retain their pick, the percentage comes out to 52%. In short, either Houston keeps their pick and selects an elite talent from a strong draft class, or they’re left with a later pick, courtesy of Oklahoma City.

But, Houston wouldn’t get Oklahoma City’s pick if they swapped. They would be stuck with Miami’s first round pick, all the way down at 18th, as a result of the Paul George trade that sent him to Los Angeles. The Clippers sent OKC Miami’s unprotected pick for 2021, that they acquired through nothing short of a journey — the pick was originally sent to Phoenix as a part of the Goran Dragic trade in 2015, before a brief stay in Philly and eventually LA.

So, OKC would swap that pick, locked at 18th, as opposed to their own pick projected to land fifth. Worst case scenario for Houston (or best case for OKC), they end up picking 18th at the earliest.

Houston has a few other picks in the first round. The Rockets own Portland’s as part of the Robert Covington trade, as well as Milwaukee’s through their trading of P.J. Tucker. Those picks are at 23rd and 24th, respectively. If Houston’s pick falls out of the top four, Houston would be picking 18th, 23rd, and 24th. Potential enough for a decent haul, but demoralizing after getting the league’s worst record. They could always trade up, but that would be Rafael Stone’s call to make.

And there’s no denying it — Houston wants that first overall pick. Cade Cunningham, a point guard from Oklahoma State, is the consensus best talent in this year’s draft, and would greatly accelerate Houston’s rebuild. Pairing him with Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood would set Houston’s core for the future in stone. Trading some of the older members of the Rockets, like John Wall and Eric Gordon, would likely give Houston even more future capital to work with.

But that all hinges on whether or not Houston is able to even keep their pick. If the worst-case scenario comes to pass, it would be entirely due to the Russell Westbrook trade. Not only would it affect them this year — there would still be picks in 2024 and 2026, and the swap in 2025 to consider. And with Chris Paul thriving in Phoenix on his way to a title run, it only makes the trade look that much worse.

Essentially, Houston mortgaged a huge chunk of their future for about two months of an elite Russell Westbrook. With Houston quickly nosediving, that mistake could prove even more costly should the ping pong balls not fall their way on Lottery Night.