Shaky in San Diego -- What we learned from Astros/Padres

Photo courtesy of Denis Poroy/Getty Images

A little less than halfway through the shortened season thus far, it's been a tale of two Astros.

When they're on, they're on. They've shown the ability to grind at-bats and shut down opposing teams, exhibiting their ability to play both sides of the ball with finesse and effectiveness. With the talent this team has, it's almost to be expected that they're able to perform at a high level when things are going their way.

On the flip side, however, Houston has also gone through stretches where they've looked positively dreadful at the plate, and have had trouble getting multiple outs in innings. That was how the majority of the season looked early on, before the team managed to rattle off a timely eight-game winning streak.

The weekend series against the San Diego Padres seemed much more in line with the latter form of the Astros, who only managed to score eight runs total during the three-game series, compared to San Diego's 22. It was their third time being swept this year, an unfavorable trend considering how short the season is.

With the Astros returning to Houston for a seven-game home stand against AL West opponents, here are some things I noticed during their trip out west.

Underperformance Against Contenders

There was an interesting comparison I saw on Twitter after the Padres beat Houston for the third straight time. It hurt a bit to read, but only because of how true it unfortunately was.

The tweet fits the Astros near perfectly -- through 18 games, Houston has yet to win a game against a team with a record at or above .500. They were swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers, swept by the Oakland Athletics, and just swept by the San Diego Padres, earning an 0-8 record against contending teams.

Eight of the Astros' fifteen wins are against both the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, two teams with a combined record of 20-39 and next to no shot at making the playoffs. And while that bodes well for the Astros, considering that they play both teams ten more times this season, they won't have the luxury of playing them in the playoffs, should they make it that far.

Houston is going to need to string wins against teams that are good. They have a three-game series at home against the Oakland Athletics after this coming series with the Angels, and a four-game series with them in a little more than two weeks. An away series with the Los Angeles Dodgers is mixed into the coming schedule as well. The Texas Rangers are currently in a really rough spot, but even they have shown the ability to compete with good teams from time to time.

If the Astros want to prove they're for real, they'll have to do so sooner rather than later. This recent series against the Padres doesn't do much to inspire confidence in that notion.

The McCullers Conundrum

Of all the starting pitchers on the staff, Lance McCullers Jr. might just be the hardest to get an accurate read on. On August 5th, Lance gave up eight runs in one inning after cruising through his first three innings in a start against Arizona. It was easily among the worst starts of his career, with his last similar start coming in a game against the Minnesota Twins in 2018, during which he gave up eight runs in 3.2 innings.

During his very next start on August 10th, however, he had a no-hitter going into the seventh inning against the Giants, broken up by a Donovan Solano double down the left field line that Alex Bregman very well could have made a play on. That hit proved to be the only baserunner he would allow in his seven innings of work in that outing, on a night that saw him collect five strikeouts in tandem with the no-no.

Why is McCullers so weirdly inconsistent? His splits don't provide much of a reason, but there is a noticeable trend -- at Minute Maid Park, he has a 1.93 earned run average in 18.2 innings, with an opposing batting average of merely .145 and a walks plus hits per innings pitched ratio of 0.80. In games away from MMP, however, that ERA balloons to an ugly 11.37 in 12.2 innings, with an OBA of .370 and a WHIP of 2.05. That correlation is true for past years as well, to a slightly less egregious degree (in 2018, McCullers' home ERA was 3.43, compared to his away ERA of 4.24).

The trend continued in San Diego on Friday night, in an outing that saw McCullers give up four runs off seven hits and two walks in five innings pitched during the losing effort. Both of his losses on the year have come in away games, while his two wins have both come at home. Obviously, the link doesn't immediately point to winning at home and losing on the road, but it's safe to assume that McCullers enjoys the confines of Minute Maid Park more than other venues.

However, this is something that Lance is going to need to overcome in the coming weeks. If the rotation were to stay exactly the same for the rest of the season, three of his remaining six starts would come on the road, lining up against the Angels, Dodgers, and Mariners. Two of those games are against division rivals near the bottom of the division, presenting an opportunity to change the fortune of his away game starts. He'll need the run if he's going to become a reliable second starter in the playoffs, especially in the event that he is forced to pitch in an away game in a seven-game series.

A Tale of Four T's

This next segment will cover four different players, some more well known than others -- José Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Abraham Toro, and Nick Tanielu.

First, the former MVP. After an awful start to the season, Altuve has seemed to return to form somewhat in the past few games. He was one of the few positives in the series against San Diego, hitting balls all over the place -- he went 5-12 (.416) at the plate during the three-game series, with two of those hits going for extra bases. He's raised his batting average from .176 to .214 in the span of a week.

Altuve has reclaimed his rightful spot as second in the batting order, and provides a welcome bit of production to a lineup that will be missing Alex Bregman for the next few weeks with a strained hamstring.

Another bright spot in the Padres' series was Kyle Tucker, who performed just as well, if not better, than Altuve during the stretch. He only hit .250 (2-8) during the series, but he drew an impressive three walks during the three-gamer, to go along with his home run in the series finale.

He also flashed the glove a little under the San Diego sun.

Unfortunately, not everyone managed to show out in the series, and among those who struggled the most in the series was Abraham Toro. Receiving time at third base in wake of Bregman's untimely injury, Toro had a chance to improve on the few plate appearances he received last year and showcase his improvement.

The exact opposite has been the case thus far. In 55 plate appearances, Toro has managed only seven hits total, coming out to a dreadful .140 batting average, worst on the team among qualifiers. His strikeout total is exactly double his number of hits at 14, translating to a strikeout percentage of roughly 25%, second worst on the team.

While Toro presents a slightly above-average glove at the hot corner, its essentially the only thing keeping him in the lineup. Yuli Gurriel has spent time at third base, which would give Taylor Jones more playing time in the event Gurriel was to log more innings in the far left side of the infield, but Dusty Baker appears to want to keep Gurriel in his natural position at first base and keep Toro at third.

That's where the final name of this segment comes into play -- Nick Tanielu. Tanielu is a 27 year-old third baseman who has yet to even log a single major league plate appearance, but has shown promise consistently in the minor leagues. In 2018, Tanielu hit .287 with 33 hits in double-A ball at Corpus Christi, before being promoted to triple-A Fresno and hitting .289 with 80 hits in 47 more games. Tanielu's numbers only improved in his first full season in triple-A in 2019, raising his batting average to .295 and showing an increase in power with 19 total home runs, compared to his nine in 2018.

Among his most impressive tools was his low strikeout totals, striking out a mere 38 times in 277 at-bats in 2018, good for an effective 13.7% strikeout rate. For reference, Michael Brantley, among the best players in the league in limiting strikeouts, had a strikeout percentage of 10.4% in 2019. Tanielu's strikeout ratio increased slightly to just under 19% in 2019, but that went in tandem with an increase in extra base hits on the year. His OPS was also raised from .755 to .880 from 2018 to 2019.

With Bregman out for an extended amount of time, and Abraham Toro struggling the way that he is, it might not hurt to bring Tanielu up and see what exactly he can bring to the team during the shortened season. Tanielu has shown that he has a good feel at the plate, and while he doesn't hit for power very often, his knack for hitting might be worth testing at the major league level.