Free Agency Outlook: What will the Astros do this offseason?

Photo courtesy of Karen Warren

In a season that was so hectic and improvised, the Astros still somehow came out better for it -- after a middling regular season that saw the team become the first team under .500 to make the playoffs, Houston became the second team in history to force a Game 7 after being down 3-0 in a series, and was one win away from reaching the World Series for the third time in four years. That was all accomplished in spite of losing Justin Verlander, Roberto Osuna, and Yordan Álvarez for the year with differing injuries.

Now, the season has come to an end, and the offseason speculation is already in full swing. Though even that has been affected by COVID-19, as the Winter Meetings -- a practice that has existed since 1901 -- have been forced online due to the virus. One way or another, free agent proceedings will be sure to change the league in more ways than one.

The Astros, for their part, have already begun making moves for next year. The team offered a qualifying offer to star outfielder George Springer, and have picked up the player option for reliever Brooks Raley, who was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds earlier this year and performed well out of the bullpen. Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick, the other two starting outfielders from last year, are yet to be offered either a QO or an extension, and closer Roberto Osuna was sent to outright waivers last Thursday, effectively ending his Astros' tenure.

Still, there are many more potential moves to be made in general manager James Click's first full offseason at the helm of the organization. Here are some potential deals that could be struck in the near (or far) future for the Astros.

1) Jackie Bradley Jr. (CF, Boston Red Sox)

2020: .283 BA, .814 OPS, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB

The Boston Red Sox are known to be heavily pushing for George Springer, and in the event that Springer does sign with the Sox, free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. would likely be searching for a new home in the winter. An unofficial trade between the two teams could be very much in play between the two teams.

Bradley, an all-star in 2016, isn't nearly as much of a threat with the bat as Springer is, but he is every bit the capable centerfielder the Astros are accustomed to having on the team. A Gold Glove award winner in 2018, Bradley was 21 runs above average that same year, easily among the upper-echelon of centerfielders in the sport (that is to say that Bradley's play at the position prevented roughly 21 runs from scoring throughout the duration of a season). While the numbers lessened slightly in 2019 and 2020 due to slight regression and the virus, there's no denying that Bradley is an elite option defensively at center field.

And though he is wildly sporadic with the bat (his career batting average is .239), Bradley Jr. has had success in Minute Maid Park. In the 2018 ALCS, Bradley won the MVP award for the series despite hitting only .200 in five games, slugging two home runs and nine RBIs during the series, one of which was a grand slam off of former closer Roberto Osuna. While he wouldn't benefit from the Crawford Boxes as a left-handed hitter, Bradley could still find a way to manage hits, especially with eight major league seasons of experience under his belt.

Bradley could be a bottom-of-the-order table setter for the Astros should he sign with Houston -- a nine-hole hitter with speed, who could be dangerous if on base for the top of a potent Astros hitting core. Of course, all this speculation would be for nothing if Springer re-signs with the Astros, but in the event he walks, Bradley Jr. would likely be at the top of the list of potential replacements for James Click.

2) Blake Treinen (RP/CL, Los Angeles Dodgers)

2020: 3.86 ERA, 25.2 IP, 22 K, 1 SV

Speaking of elite 2018 players, Treinen is a name Astros players and fans know well -- before joining the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020, Treinen was a member of the Oakland Athletics from 2017 to 2019. That span of time included Treinen's elite 2018 season, which saw him work a 0.78(!) ERA in 80+ innings of work to go along with 38 saves as the closer. Treinen garnered serious attention for the Cy Young award that season, a rarity for relief pitchers.

With the loss of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly figures to fill in currently for the Astros as the closer, and while he performed admirably given the circumstances, he was hardly a sure thing at the position. With a bullpen as young as the Astros' is, a veteran bullpen reliever is essentially a must-have for the team, and there aren't very many options better than Treinen currently on the market. It would likely cost the team a pretty penny, but it's worth the value if the vision pans out. Given Treinen's horrendous 2019 season and slightly better 2020, the Astros might even be able to cut costs and still get Treinen for a season or two.

Returning Pressly to the set-up role might do wonders for the reliever, who excelled at such a spot in 2019. A proven closer would essentially eliminate any other late-inning bullpen woes the Astros might have had, and the rest of the young bullpen -- already with a season of experience gathered in 2020 -- could fill itself out accordingly. Pitching coach Brent Strom turned that bullpen full of rookies into one of the best in the postseason in 2020, and I have little doubt Strom could help transform Treinen back into his former glory if the Astros managed to acquire him.

3) Chris Archer (SP, Pittsburgh Pirates)

2019: 5.19 ERA, 119.2 IP, 3-9 W/L

Archer, a two-time all-star, was traded from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates in what, in hindsight, has been one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory -- the Pirates received Archer in exchange for pitcher Tyler Glasnow (one of the best young pitchers in baseball), outfielder Austin Meadows (one of the better young outfielders in baseball), and Shane Baz, who has shown promise in the minor leagues. While the other three have thrived, Archer struggled mightily in Pittsburgh, leading the Pirates to decide it would be best if the two parted ways, agreeing to a $250K buyout with Pittsburgh this year.

The 32-year-old is quickly running out of time to revitalize his career, and there don't seem to be very many takers on an aging back-end starter who hasn't pitched in a year. One of those takers, however, should probably be the Houston Astros, who have experience in turning left-for-dead Pirates pitchers into under-the-radar studs.

The Astros' 2021 starting pitching rotation fills out nicely at the top, despite the loss of Justin Verlander. Zack Greinke will presume the role of ace, while Framber Valdez, who blossomed into a star in 2020, will take the reins as the second man. That leaves Lance McCullers Jr. to follow in at the third spot, with José Urquidy and Cristian Javier filling out the back end. Time will tell if prospect Forrest Whitley finally gets the chance to live up to his billing as a potential ace, but for now, the projection reads as above.

But there are plenty of other options to consider as well. Cristian Javier flourished in his role as a long reliever in the postseason, and while he was great as a starter, he tended to tire out quickly, and never lasted long in games. Dusty Baker may decide to move Javier from the fifth spot in the rotation to the bullpen if another viable arm arrives on the team, whether it's Whitley or a player like Archer.

Charlie Morton was an aging veteran who was seriously contemplating retirement. Gerrit Cole was struggling, ready to join the ranks of other failed number one overall picks. Going from those labels, and transforming into the likes of a World Series hero and Cy Young finalist respectively, there is one commonality between the two pitchers -- Brent Strom and the Astros' divine intervention. If given the chance, the man once heralded as the Archer could have a chance to shake things up and prove to the world once again why he was a highly-regarded all-star in the past. It certainly wouldn't be the first time the Astros took a chance on a pitcher and came out better for it.