Playoff Preview: Rockets set to duel with the Best in the West

Photo courtesy of Harry How/Getty Images

It's been a hectic few weeks for the Houston Rockets.

Entering August 18, Houston was prepping themselves for a series against a staunch Oklahoma City squad without Russell Westbrook. Though the Thunder were fairly good (they held the N.B.A.'s best record since Thanksgiving at 38-17), Houston still considered themselves the favorites despite a majority of analysts splitting 50-50 on who would win the series. After taking the first two games, Houston found themselves faltering in the next two games to even the series at two apiece.

Then the boycotts happened. In lieu of Houston and OKC's pivotal Game 5, all teams instead elected to protest and bring attention to racial injustices once again making the news, this time in the form of Jacob Blake's shooting.Though the league was temporarily suspected of being in jeopardy, the playoffs eventually resumed three days later, and the Rockets benefitted from the return of Russell Westbrook in Game 5. Two tightly contested games later, and the Rockets just barely managed to survive the Thunder in seven.

Unfortunately, the Rockets won't have the luxury of extended rest, as they now have the daunting task of facing the Los Angeles Lakers, the number one seed in the western conference, who are also coming off a gentleman's sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers that they wrapped up all the way back on August 30. With almost a week to rest up in anticipation, the Lakers will be giving Houston their best shot heading into Friday night's Game 1.

So, what do you do if you're Houston? It's not easy stopping the King and the Brow, but as the regular season has shown us, there are a few ways that the Rockets can manage to grind out some wins against the Lakeshow. Here are the storylines to watch as the Rockets begin their second round matchup tonight at 8 PM central.

P.J. versus A.D.

The Rockets' defensive presence begins and ends with their on-court emotional leader, P.J. Tucker. The former longhorn has been a necessary stalwart ever since transitioning full-time to the center position in Mike D'Antoni's small-ball scheme, and he tends to draw the toughest assignment in containing opposing team's big men. While he gives up a few inches defensively, his intensity is what often confounds and irritates so many big men on the low block.

Unfortunately, the Lakers' Anthony Davis is by no means an average big man. In his first season since being traded over from the New Orleans Pelicans, Davis has averaged 26 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, easily among the best in the league in terms of centers and power forwards. Davis has been a huge reason behind why the Lakers have propelled themselves to first in the western conference.

What's fascinating is how exactly Davis has changed his game since coming to Los Angeles. Surprisingly, the rebound and point averages are down, but Davis has shifted his game to a more finesse approach, rather than dominating inside the paint like he did in New Orleans. Davis is averaging 3.5 threes attempted per game, his highest marks of his career (for comparison, Davis shot only 2.2 threes a game two years ago). What that also means is that he's attempting far less two-pointers, averaging only 7.7 a game, his lowest average since his rookie season.

So how has Davis managed to keep his scoring totals up while attempting less shots? To put it simply, he's not being forced to touch the ball on every possession -- with LeBron James at the helm, Davis is free to roam the floor at times and find his shot, working as a catch-and-shoot threat in addition to being able to get to a certain spot for a layup or three. This is a stark contrast to his time in N.O., in which he was the first option every time down the floor.

P.J. Tucker presents a conundrum for Davis, however. In the Rockets' inaugural small-ball game, which came against the Lakers, P.J. Tucker was assigned as the primary guard for Anthony Davis. In that game, Davis exploded for 32 points and 13 rebounds on 67% shooting, but the Rockets ended up winning that game 121-111. P.J. Tucker by no means performed a defensive clinic on Davis, but the success came in other ways -- with Tucker parked in the corner three spot where he has thrived his entire career, Davis is forced out of the paint to guard him, lest he give up a corner three. That gives more room for elite ball-handling guards (AKA James Harden and Russell Westbrook) to get in the lane for easy layups without much contention.

There might be a night where Tucker manages to hold Davis to under 30. But the best defense Tucker can play on Davis is limiting the Laker big man's own by keeping him out of the paint. It helps if he nails a few threes a game.

Westbrook's Health

A big proponent behind that aforementioned win against the Lakers back in February was Russell Westbrook's dominant performance. In that game, Westbrook went off for 41 points, eight rebounds and five assists, utilizing the small-ball advantage to its fullest extent. It was built with him in mind, after all.

Things are different now. Westbrook only played in three of the seven playoff games against OKC, due to a lingering quad issue that kept him out of the first four games. He was on a minutes restriction in the three games he did play in, limiting his average minutes to just about 27 a game (just over two quarters).

Westbrook might not be as effective as the team would like, but they'll still need him to dominate enough to take advantage of the small-ball matchup. Westbrook's speciality isn't step-back jumpers, but aggressively driving into the lane against less-athletic guards and earning easy layups. That might be harder for him to do when he's not at 100%, but thankfully there's more to his game than simply running and scoring.

Westbrook averaged seven assists per game this year. For his career, he's averaging 8.3 assists per game. His seven assists per game account for just under a third of the team's total assists per game (Houston as a team averages 21.6 assists per game). Westbrook is just as adept in getting others to score as he is capable of scoring himself, which is unexpected given the iso-heavy Rockets' scheme.

If the layup is there, Westbrook will take it. If help defense arrives, Westbrook will kick the ball out to an open man. With the speed Westbrook tends to play at, it may or may not be harder for him to do these things with him only recently being cleared to play. Regardless, Westbrook will need to be at his peak if Houston wants to stand a chance.

Harden Domination

There will be no Luguentz Dort breathing down James Harden's neck in this series, and with that realization comes the notion that Harden will need to dominate this series with the Lakers.

Dort was among the best defenders the league has ever seen on James Harden. Despite that, Harden still managed to average 29.7 points a game on 46.5% shooting from the field, on top of adding eight assists, six rebounds, and a little under two steals per game. No matter the defender, James Harden will find a way to get his.

Fortunately for Houston, there will be no Lu Dort in the second round. Instead, Harden will be greeted by the likes of Rajon Rondo, Alex Caruso, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Harden's normal defender Avery Bradley opted out of the bubble restart in Orlando, meaning it will be up to those guards (and probably more) to try and contain Harden. Suffice it to say, those three are no Dort.

Not only that, but Los Angeles will have two former M.V.P. guards to try and deal with without Bradley's defensive help. Of course, there is always the option of sticking a bigger man (LeBron, Kuzma, Davis) onto one of them and constantly ball-denying, but that might have a detrimental effect on those players on the offensive side of the court. As such, the Lakers might be content to stick their existing guards on Harden and hope for the best.

Hoping hasn't gotten them much so far this year against Houston. In three regular season games, Harden is averaging 29 points, seven rebounds, and a little under nine assists per game while shooting 45% from the field. While those rank under his season averages, keep in mind that he went 2-1 against L.A. this year, and that he also managed to beat the Lakers without Westbrook in the bubble.

James Harden is notorious for going off in Game 1's. Against OKC, Harden went off for 37 points and 11 rebounds on 12-22 shooting (6-13 from three). Since coming to Houston, Harden has averaged exactly 30 points per game in the first game of a playoff series. He's scored 35+ points in five of his last six Game 1's. To say there is no more reliable player to begin a playoff series might be an understatement.

Houston is going to need Harden to potentially shoulder a bit more of the load with Westbrook still getting back into the swing of things in terms of offense. But, there's a lot to like heading into this Game 1 for Harden, and he's never been known as a player to be contained for too long. A Harden explosion would do wonders for this team heading into the conference semifinals.

Who knows? It might just be what kickstarts an unlikely upset for the underdog Houston Rockets.